Geopolitical Tremors
the tectonic plates of the geopolitical landscape are shifting!
i don't agree that this is World War III--things would have to get a lot worse and a lot more globally-mobilized for that to be the case, in my opinion, but a number of conflicts around the world bring into clear focus new paradigms of threats to our country and indeed in trends of power in what will become world history.
i was just talking today with the Iraqi shuttle driver today about how the Arab world used to rule the world at one time, and was the most sophisticated and educated society anywhere, and how sad that that isn't the case anymore.
in my opinion, the Holocaust happened in part because Hitler simply tapped into an underlying presence of anti-Semitism that was just waiting for the right impetus to boil over and be put into action.
similarly, there seem to be so many corners of the Arab/Muslim world that are amassing huge support and financial and cultural infrastructure that with the right trigger, could explode in a huge way. Hezbollah is one example; they are a huge state-less state that comprises an entire society and ideology and identity.
i also think that non-state actors such as al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah are important in the world arena as never before.
just when we think we will never learn from our mistakes, an entirely new set of circumstances presents itself in a way we'll never recognize.
my dad thinks the current world climate resembles pre-World War I, because of all these alliances that exist, and if one player comes into conflict with another, the rest of the nations are ready to fall in line behind whichever side they support. this is one example of our not learning from our mistakes--no one even remembers War I anymore, and much to our detriment.
i also see resemblences to pre-World War II, when in the 1930's Hitler was amassing weapons, soldiers, a huge infrastructure, and slowly but surely "taking over" countries next to him without officially declaring war. churchill was the only one who saw that "grave and gathering threat" (to quote Bush). no one else did.
what is our "grave and gathering threat" right now? it most certainly isn't, or wasn't, iraq. i think it's the risk that militant islam will organize and "rise up" in ways the West is not prepared to defend--that it's underlying cells like Hezbollah and the Islamic militia that recently took over Mogadishu that pose the greatest threat--they have the ideology that spreads like wildfire to millions of waiting, restless, resentful Arab/Muslim folks and they are slowly amassing infrastructure.
maybe it's only a matter of time until someone or something that would function as Hitler or Gavrilo Princip [the guy who killed Archduke Ferdinand and started War I] did to tap into that enormous mass of resentment and weapons that only grow with every passing day.
[image source: atlapedia.com]
i don't agree that this is World War III--things would have to get a lot worse and a lot more globally-mobilized for that to be the case, in my opinion, but a number of conflicts around the world bring into clear focus new paradigms of threats to our country and indeed in trends of power in what will become world history.
i was just talking today with the Iraqi shuttle driver today about how the Arab world used to rule the world at one time, and was the most sophisticated and educated society anywhere, and how sad that that isn't the case anymore.
in my opinion, the Holocaust happened in part because Hitler simply tapped into an underlying presence of anti-Semitism that was just waiting for the right impetus to boil over and be put into action.
similarly, there seem to be so many corners of the Arab/Muslim world that are amassing huge support and financial and cultural infrastructure that with the right trigger, could explode in a huge way. Hezbollah is one example; they are a huge state-less state that comprises an entire society and ideology and identity.
i also think that non-state actors such as al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah are important in the world arena as never before.
just when we think we will never learn from our mistakes, an entirely new set of circumstances presents itself in a way we'll never recognize.
my dad thinks the current world climate resembles pre-World War I, because of all these alliances that exist, and if one player comes into conflict with another, the rest of the nations are ready to fall in line behind whichever side they support. this is one example of our not learning from our mistakes--no one even remembers War I anymore, and much to our detriment.
i also see resemblences to pre-World War II, when in the 1930's Hitler was amassing weapons, soldiers, a huge infrastructure, and slowly but surely "taking over" countries next to him without officially declaring war. churchill was the only one who saw that "grave and gathering threat" (to quote Bush). no one else did.
what is our "grave and gathering threat" right now? it most certainly isn't, or wasn't, iraq. i think it's the risk that militant islam will organize and "rise up" in ways the West is not prepared to defend--that it's underlying cells like Hezbollah and the Islamic militia that recently took over Mogadishu that pose the greatest threat--they have the ideology that spreads like wildfire to millions of waiting, restless, resentful Arab/Muslim folks and they are slowly amassing infrastructure.
maybe it's only a matter of time until someone or something that would function as Hitler or Gavrilo Princip [the guy who killed Archduke Ferdinand and started War I] did to tap into that enormous mass of resentment and weapons that only grow with every passing day.
[image source: atlapedia.com]
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